Donald Trump became US president for the second time on January 20th. The 47th President will likely change the direction of many US farm policies. This will provide opportunities for and threats to farmers in the US and elsewhere. What will Trump’s farming policies be given a radical shift away from the Biden years? What do US farmers think, and what will the consequences be for the global agricultural sector?
The New Team
Trump has nominated Brooke Rollins to head the USDA. Rollins is a former White House Staffer in his first administration who went on to lead the America First Policy Institute. She comes from a farming background in Texas and holds a degree in Agricultural Development. US Farm groups have largely been positive about her nomination. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said the group was “encouraged” by Rollins’s promises to fight for America’s farmers. According to Duvall:
“Effective leadership at USDA is more important than ever as farmers and ranchers face a struggling agricultural economy.”
However, Trump’s nomination for health secretary may also impact the farm sector. Robert Kennedy, or RFK Junior, is a lifelong Democrat, climate activist, and environmental lawyer.
RFK advocates healthy eating and has promised to challenge the agri-food sector on various issues. Under his leadership, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is expected to push policies related to his ‘’Make America Healthy Again’’ ideals, such as limitations on processed foods, seed oils, and pesticides. The fresh produce and organic sectors may benefit. Federal regulations may also change to allow the sale of raw milk across state lines.
What to Expect?
Nothing is certain, but in assessing the impact of Trump’s farming policies in his second term, we can look at his past record. The US has a long history of providing direct support to farmers to promote food security and jobs within rural areas. This includes support to cope with natural disasters such as flooding and drought – and in the case of President Trump’s first presidency, compensation to deal with the fallout of trade disputes with China. A POLITICO analysis found that Biden and Trump’s payments to farmers were virtually identical over the first three years of their presidencies. Both men authorized nearly $57 billion in direct federal payments to farmers during their first three years in office. However, net farm incomes were higher during the Bidem years.
Food Production Versus the Environment
Much of Trump’s rhetoric has emphasised the need for deregulation of the American economy and improved efficiency. For example, President Trump has promised to repeal climate-related restrictions on agriculture and to deregulate the farming sector with a greater emphasis on food production. During his first term, Trump reversed over 100 climate and environmentally-focused rules that originated under former President Obama’s administration. Under Trump, the USDA also stopped publishing government studies that mentioned climate change. Notably, he also pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change and will do so again.
Project 2025, the roadmap for a second term created by many Trump supporters and advisors, outlines that the USDA should remove the country from any “schemes” to produce sustainable food or provide funding for climate-smart practices for producers.
Trade – America First
Concerns about protectionism on tariffs and international trade have existed since Donald Trump’s last term. During his first term, Trump imposed higher taxes on imports from several countries, including China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India, and Turkey.
During his latest campaign, Trump promised to be even more aggressive, proposing tariffs up to 10% on most imports, more than 60% on Chinese goods, and a “100% tariff” on nations that stop using the U.S. dollar.
Thus, the trade war with China is expected to reignite, with adjustments to tariffs on imports and imports. Further trade agreements with partners such as the EU will prove more difficult. There also could be changes to US foreign aid – with significant implications for farmers and food security in developing nations.
The Future of Agricultural Labor in the U.S
In his speeches, Trump supported the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, promising to deport over 20 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Many US farm workers are undocumented, and farm jobs are entry-level jobs which usually do not require previous experience, and many Americans are unwilling to work on farms.
There is evidence that employers are more likely to look to reduce the need for manual labour rather than employ Americans. This could provide an incentive for further investment in Ag Tech and the automation of many farming activities. One study suggests that for every 1 million immigrants deported, about 88,000 American workers lose their jobs.
Analysts also assess significant impacts on temporary worker visas, the H2A visas. This can directly affect production on American farms.
The Opportunities
The second Trump administration will focus on national policies, with a greater emphasis on the American economy, decreasing the reliance on imports and stronger immigration laws. We can expect a boost in investment in new technologies and machines to replace scarcer and scarcer manual farm labour. Farms and businesses producing “natural” or “healthy” foods may also see an upturn.
How do you feel about Trump’s farming policies? Do you believe Trump will do a better job than his immediate predecessor? What will be the impact, if any, for farmers and agribusinesses outside of the US?
Contact us to find out more about the opportunities within US agriculture for your products or services.