Climate change is happening, and this is impacting food production and farming in many places across the globe. However, farmers have always adapted to new environmental and climatic conditions. Extreme weather is disrupting agricultural systems with increasing frequency with higher-than-normal temperatures, heavy rainfall or out-of-season frosts limiting crop production in many places.
For example, heavy rains in the south of Brazil affected about 15% of the rice harvest in the Spring. This has not only disrupted the immediate agricultural activities but has also raised concerns about long-term food security in the region. As a result, there was a 40% increase in the prices of grains and some of their derivatives, such as flour, in 2024. This spike in prices is likely to have a cascading effect on the economy. Households may face higher costs for staple foods, impacting their budgets and spending habits. Additionally, farmers are now looking for ways to mitigate the impact of such extreme weather in the future. This may involve investing in better irrigation systems or diversifying crops to enhance resilience against similar climatic challenges.
The El Niño Effect
By Pixabay – Pexels
‘El Niño’, the warming of sea surface temperature occurs every few years and is typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific. This effect contributes to warmer temperatures and intensifies drought conditions in South America, southern Africa, and parts of the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. The resulting high temperatures and floods can have major consequences for crop production.
In July 2024, global temperatures reached unprecedented levels, breaking historical records with an average of 17.16 °C. This extreme heat led soil water to evaporate, leaving the vegetation and biodiversity more fragile in many areas. This, combined with unusually low rain levels, caused major river basins like the Amazon, La Plata, and Zambezi to have lower-than-normal water flows, impacting the economies and ecosystems they are part of.
Climate change and Crops
High temperatures and rainfall can directly affect the production of grains, such as corn, beans, rice and soybeans. These are major crops and important for food security. Elevated temperatures can lead to:
- Physiological stress – Elevated temperatures can put plants under stress, decelerating growth rates. This affects both shoots and roots, resulting in decreased uptake of nutrients.
- Proliferation of pests and diseases – For example, farmers from warmer regions of the U.S. have identified higher rates of fungal infestations on hot and humid days, especially fusarium, penicillium and aspergillus.
- Pollination problems – High temperatures and excessive rainfall can impair the pollination process, as pollen is sensitive to warmer climates.
However, research shows that even under these conditions, farmers can adapt management practices to maintain production. For example, American producer David Hula, from Virginia, in the second half of 2023 to 2024, was able to produce 623.8 bushels per acre even with adverse weather conditions.
Direct impact on prices

In the last few years, food prices have been volatile due to recent events. These include the war in Ukraine, rising energy and fertilizer prices and rising temperatures around the globe. According to the WEF (World Economic Forum), the major crops most impacted by climate change include cocoa, potatoes, soybeans, olive oil, and rice.
Cocoa
High temperatures in West Africa have severely impacted cocoa production, with two big cocoa producers, Ghana and the Ivory Coast, experiencing drought due to El Niño. The price per ton reached US$5,874 in 2024 and has doubled since 2023, impacting the cost of chocolate in shops across many countries.
Potatoes
The European potato sector has suffered due to heavy rainfall and storms during Spring 2024, especially in Belgium and France. In the UK, flooding damaged crops, while the low countries were hit by drought. English white potato prices were up 81 % year-over-year, an all-time high.
The Netherlands and Belgium are processing potato growing regions with Dutch processing potato prices at their highest level recorded for April 2024, at €370 (US$398) per metric ton. It has been reported that supermarket prices for potatoes in the Netherlands have risen by 25% over the last two years.
Soybeans
In Brazil, the worst drought in 40 years is threatening to cut soybean production in 2024/25. Below-average rains expected for September and October could drive farmers in Mato Grosso to postpone soybean sowing until better humidity, according to AgRural analyst Daniele Siqueira.
Soybean meal is a key livestock feed. A shortage or poorer quality livestock feed can cause prices to spike, leading farmers to difficult decisions about reducing herd sizes or finding alternative food sources, for example. This in turn feeds into the price, availability and quality of meats or dairy products down the line.
Olive oil
A long, hot, dry summer in much of the Mediterranean damaged olive trees and caused a poor crop because reduced soil moisture has stunted plants and crops during their crucial growing season.
Rice
Major droughts in Asia have caused significant disruption to rice production, with a 55% increase in price. In Brazil, a major rice producer, heavy rains and flooding created problems in harvesting in the south.
In May 2024, CONAB reported significant increases in rice prices in several regions of the country. For example, in the aftermath of the floods, prices in Rio Grande do Sul increased by 14.24%. However, despite this, the USDA reports that production in 2024 is likely to be maintained.
Building resilience to climate change

Given the scale of losses due to extreme weather, commercial farmers are looking for smart ways to maintain production and output.
Potential solutions include:
- Crop diversification – The cultivation of heat-stress tolerant crops.
- Plant and seed breeding – Using varieties resistant to extreme conditions, such as high temperatures or excessive rainfall.
- Relocating – Relocate crops from high flood-risk areas to land at higher altitudes to avoid damage.
- Investing in new technology – For example, Artificial intelligence has the potential to increase productivity and decrease costs. New technologies are also emerging as a way to protect against climate change.
A combination of appropriate technologies and good soil management can build resilience to climatic events to help maintain crop production. The actions that we take today will reflect directly on the future. If humanity continues to degrade natural ecosystems, the trend towards extreme weather events affecting large areas of cultivation will continue.
There is a need for improved genetics, and farming methods resilient to extremes of drought and heavy rainfall. It’s expected that by the year 2030, temperatures will increase even more, exceeding 1.5ºC than usual, and agricultural production will become increasingly difficult and costly in some countries.
The agricultural industry must work with nature, avoid deforestation, and, above all, reduce the GHG emissions, pollution and loss of biodiversity associated with food production.